Maria Alejandra Ttl Model [ VALIDATED | 2027 ]

# ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 2. ANALYTICAL SURVIVAL (homogeneous case) # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def analytic_survival(t, TTL0, mu, delta=1): """Closed‑form survival for homogeneous decrements.""" k = np.floor(mu * t).astype(int) # expected hop count by time t # Using the negative‑binomial CDF complement surv = 0.0 for j in range(TTL0): # P(remaining TTL > j) = 1 - CDF_NB(j; r=k+1, p=mu/(mu+1)) surv += betainc(j+1, k+1, 1/(mu+1)) return surv / TTL0

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[ S(t)=\sum_k=0^TTL_0-1 \binomk+\lfloor \mu t \rfloork \left(\frac\mu\mu+1\right)^\lfloor \mu t \rfloor+1 \left(\frac1\mu+1\right)^k. ] ] Below is a minimal notebook skeleton you

Below is a minimal notebook skeleton you can copy‑paste into a new Jupyter file ( ttl_demo.ipynb ). It will: j) = 1 - CDF_NB(j

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# --------------------------------------------------------- # ttl_demo.ipynb – Minimal demo for María Alejandra’s TTL model # --------------------------------------------------------- import numpy as np import matplotlib.pyplot as plt from scipy.special import betainc